Get Real

Meteorologists are reluctant to call a month "nice." They have their data and their science and typically do not describe the weather in such subjective terms.

Except now, because the data prove it.

"It's probably the best June since I've been here, and I've been here most of my life," said the National Weather Service's Valerie Meyers, who is in her late 40s. "It's been really nice." Possibly the nicest June ever.

It's that type of thing that is fun to say but hard to quantify.

Thursday, however, was the 14th consecutive day to stay below 100 degrees. That's the longest stretch of its kind in any June since 1913.

AZ Record Temps

 

Game-Changer’ Report: Global Warming Already Affecting United States

BY CHRIS HOLLY

In a scientific assessment described by a senior Obama administration official as a “game changer,” a landmark government report released Tuesday states that global warming already is causing significant climate-related impacts in every corner of the United States, including hotter land and water temperatures, more frequent and heavier downpours, increases in sea level and shifts in river flows due to reduced snow melt and other factors.

The report, the first significant assessment of global warming impacts in the United States since 2000, was produced by the U.S. Global Change Research Program—an interagency effort led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

It concludes that climate-related changes caused by rising emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases already have been observed throughout the United States and abroad, and warns the public to expect additional and more severe impacts in the future unless global emissions are reduced quickly.

In addition to the heavier and more intense “rainfall events,” warmer temperatures, sea-level rises and changes in river flows, the United States is experiencing fewer days each year when the temperature drops below freezing, longer periods each year in which rivers and lakes are free of ice, a lengthening of the growing season and increased water vapor in the atmosphere, the report said.

Climate changes already are affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems and human health, the report said. The impacts differ from region to region and will grow and intensify if the growth in global emissions continues unchecked, it said. Some of the changes, such as sea-level rise, are irreversible.

In one of dozens of eye-popping findings, the report said that over the past 30 years, average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains have increased more than 7 degrees Fahrenheit (F). Some of the changes documented have occurred more rapidly than previous assessments had predicted, the report noted.

In another shocker, the report said that parts of the South and Midwest that currently have about 60 days per year with temperatures exceeding 90 degrees F are projected to experience 150 or more days above 90 degrees by the end of the century if the higher of two emission scenarios the report examined occurs.

Other likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain and storm surges, as well as drier conditions in the Southwest, Southeast and Caribbean, it said.

In a Tuesday briefing on the report, NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said she believes the assessment will profoundly shift the U.S debate on global warming.

“I really believe that this report is a game changer,” Lubchenco said. “I think that much of the foot-dragging on addressing climate change is a reflection of the perception that climate change is way down the road, it’s in the future and it only affects remote parts of the planet.

“This report demonstrates, provides the concrete scientific information that says unequivocally that climate change is happening now, it’s happening in our own backyards and it affects the kinds of things people care about. So I think the dialogue is changing.”

Jerry Melillo, director of NOAA’s Ecosystems Center of the Marine Biological Laboratory and a lead author of the report put it more bluntly.

“It is clear that climate change is happening now,” Melillo said. “The observed impacts are not opinions to be debated, they are facts.”

While the report did not propose policy recommendations, Lubchenco and report authors all agreed that the United States and other countries must act “sooner, rather than later,” to sharply reduce emissions.

Over the past 50 years, U.S. average temperature has risen more than 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit (F) and is expected to sharply increase in the future without emission cuts. Precipitation has increased an average of about 5 percent over this period, with projections of future precipitation generally indicating that northern areas of the United States will become wetter, while southern areas—particularly the already drought-prone Southwest—will become drier.

At the same time, the amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased about 20 percent on average, and this trend is “very likely” to continue, with the largest increases occurring in the wettest regions of the country, the report said.

Melillo said that rising temperatures already have resulted in important changes in the character of different regions of the country. For example, maple syrup production, which requires a specific combination and number of cold nights and warm days, already is shifting from Vermont—long the place to go for the popular pancake topping—to Canada. Similarly, the Northeast can expect to see production of apples and cranberries, which also require a certain level of winter chilling, to decline as temperatures increase, he said.

And in the Northwest, cold-water fish such as trout and salmon are likely to come under considerable pressure as water temperatures increase because of warming ambient air, he said.

Melillo also warned to expect sharply increased competition for water between agriculture, electric utilities and people—particularly in the Southwest and Southeast, regions already prone to alarming droughts. Hydroelectric plants, of course, depend on water to generate electricity, and coal and nuclear plants require enormous amounts of water for cooling. Melillo noted that water already is an issue in power plant permitting, particularly in the Southwest.

“I think water is going to be a tremendous challenge for the energy industry,” he said.

USA Today

You don’t ever want a crisis to go to waste; it’s an opportunity to do important things that you would otherwise avoid.

Rahm Israel Emanuel